By Anuraag Khaund
The Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh grabbed headlines in the previous few weeks over Chinese language protestation towards PM Modi’s visit to the state on March 11 and once more on March 25 in response to Indian Exterior Affairs Minister S Jaishankar rebuffing Beijing’s claims as ludicrous. Following intently on this latest tussle, Beijing on March 28 commemorated the ‘Democratic Reform Day’ in Xizang (Mandarin time period for Tibet) which marked the 65th anniversary of Tibet’s ‘liberation from earlier feudal serfdom’. What’s of significance is that the above talked about celebrations have been held within the newly constructed Xiaokang (well-off) villages constructed alongside the borders of India and Bhutan. This motion, within the mild of latest occasions together with the India- China border stand-off since 2020 and negotiations over settling the Sino- Bhutanese boundary (with implications for India), may be seen as a gray zone warfare tactic by Beijing.
Grey zone warfare broadly refers back to the strategies of oblique warfare or competitors between nation states which lie within the space between peace and full-scale warfare. It features a huge array of choice equivalent to financial coercion, blockade of important provides, cyberwarfare, disinformation, and narrative constructing and influencing campaigns. China isn’t any stranger to such warfare given its pre-eminence in historic Sinic navy treatises equivalent to The Art of War and the appliance of such techniques towards India and Taiwan.
With respect to the Chinese language celebrations above, the primary side to notice is the situation i.e. the Xiaokang villages. These villages, numbering round 628, have been constructed alongside the Line of Precise Management (LAC) straddling the Tibet Autonomous Area (TAR) and the Indian territories of Ladakh and Arunachal Pradesh below the ostensible goal of poverty alleviation and growth in border areas; nevertheless, it’s alleged that they’re dual-use in nature and has been constructed with the aim of stationing PLA troops and gear. Along with the LAC, these villages have additionally been constructed alongside the disputed Sino- Bhutan boundary within the backdrop of negotiations between Beijing and Thimphu. Extra worrying for India is the truth that such villages have additionally cropped up within the strategically delicate Doklam tri-junction which has the potential implications for the Siliguri Corridor connecting the Indian mainland to its North-Jap area. Additionally it is to be underlined that Doklam is without doubt one of the predominant areas of dispute between Bhutan and China and of strategic significance for India which noticed a tense 73 days standoff between New Delhi and Beijing in 2017.
When it comes to gray zone warfare, the celebrations within the villages located alongside the above disputed areas have been meant to substantiate China’s claims over the latter and in a manner, normalise the occupancy of the identical. Furthermore, the celebration of the Democratic Reform Day offers an event for Beijing to spotlight the ‘growth and prosperity’ of those villages and thereby buttress its claims in the direction of the seemingly non-military character and goals of the settlements. On the identical time, the timing of the celebrations instantly following the Chinese language response to Indian to the rebuttal on Arunachal Pradesh are additionally aimed toward reinforcing and reiterating Beijing’s declare over the area which it refers to as Zangnan or southern Tibet. As well as, the emphasis on ‘steady, fast growth’ of the border in addition to announcement of ‘promoting frontier prosperity, reinforcing border defence, border security, and the happiness of border residents’ may be seen as an obvious jibe aimed toward latest Indian makes an attempt at strengthening border infrastructure alongside the LAC together with the just lately inaugurated all-weather Sela Tunnel reaching the strategic area of Tawang which drew the Chinese language uneasiness on 9 March. Comparable messages have additionally been conveyed via celebrations in villages to Bhutan and not directly to India by holding occasions in villages on the Yadong county located within the tri-junction.
What ought to India do?
Together with the present efforts at addressing the infrastructure deficit alongside the border, India ought to study and undertake related techniques of gray zone warfare. For starters, there must be frequent visits by the Prime Minister and different Central Ministers to Tawang− a area coveted by China each for its strategic location in addition to its significance in Tibetan Buddhism. Such common visits would assist in reinforcing the already evident Indian sovereignty over not simply Tawang, however all the state of Arunachal Pradesh. This may additionally function a corrective to the sooner administration’s stance of not endeavor frequent high-profile visits to Tawang throughout official excursions of the state of Arunachal Pradesh on account of apprehension over Chinese language actions. Together with this, such high-level delegation together with the PM ought to actively participate within the Statehood Day celebrations of Arunachal Pradesh on 20th February yearly to additional buttress the above motion. Together with the implementation of the Vibrant Village Programme aimed toward bolstering the event of distant villages alongside the LAC, in a manner much like the Chinese language celebrations, India too ought to commonly spotlight the achievements and growth of those areas to not solely stem the migration from these areas but in addition counter Chinese attempts at psychological warfare.
On the diplomatic entrance, India ought to use its present worldwide weight and a number of partnerships to affect its companions to challenge statements much like the US reiterating Indian sovereignty over Arunachal Pradesh whereas condemning baseless Chinese language irridentist claims. On this regard, New Delhi can attain out to international locations like Philippines whose sovereignty claims within the South China Sea (SCS) has been supported by India together with calls to stick to the 2016 ruling by the Permanent Court of Arbitration on the identical. Equally, India can hunt down different companions equivalent to Japan and Vietnam to do the identical in change for stronger assist to their claims within the SCS and different advantages.
Narrative constitutes an important stratagem of gray zone warfare which China has by no means shied away from utilizing. In response to its narrative of historic management over Xizang (Tibet) since time immemorial, India ought to make investments its cultural sources in creating its personal narrative highlighting the historic, non secular and cultural hyperlinks between Tibet and the Indian subcontinent in addition to recognising the existence of separate Tibetan kingdom and culture militarily occupied and annexed by the People’s Republic of China in 1950. As well as, as a response to the commemoration of 28 March, the Authorities of India can take part within the official occasions organised by the Tibetan Authorities in Exile such because the annual anniversary of the Tibetan Uprising of 1959 on 10 March and unofficial presence throughout Tibetan Independence Day celebrations on 13 February, thereby highlighting the violent historical past of the Chinese language occupation usually brushed below the carpet. Furthermore, the proposal of granting Bharat Ratna, India’s highest civilian award to His Holiness the 14th Dalai Lama must also be thought of together with permitting the latter to make frequent visits to the historic Tawang monastery− an essential seat of Tibetan Buddhism which might additionally bolster the legacy and connection of India with the identical. On the identical time, as a rebuff to the utilization of phrases like Xizang and Zangnan, India ought to use the time period Tibet to confer with the area and may even skilfully make the most of the time period ‘Indo-Tibetan border’ to confer with the LAC in unofficial responses as achieved by certain quarters of the government in 2020. Consideration must also be given to counter-measures equivalent to re-naming places in Tibet as a sign of stronger Indian assertiveness.
With regard to Bhutan, whereas India has elevated its outreach and level of support to the country, New Delhi additionally must also attempt to extend the level of its commitment and re-assurance to backing Bhutan’s claims together with supporting Thimphu’s voice within the worldwide fora. Such sturdy assist wouldn’t solely assist India’s personal strategic considerations but in addition increase its standing in its close to and prolonged neighbourhood as a trusted and reliable partner vis-a vis China. New Delhi ought to particularly attempt to channelise strong help in the direction of aiding Bhutan in creating its personal border areas with China and its military capabilities. Such efforts would maybe encourage Thimphu to emulate related grey zone tactics as talked about above by itself accord.
As outlined by Dr S Jaishankar in his guide Why Bharat Matters the crux of the constructive growth of the Sino- Indian ties lie in ‘three mutuals- mutual respect, mutual sensitivity and mutual pursuits’. A cursory look on the historical past of the ties since 1950 will present that whereas New Delhi has adhered to the three ‘mutuals’, Beijing has and continues to violate them until date. Therefore, it’s time, to make use of the identical techniques from China’s personal playbook to make Beijing realise that ‘it would get as hard as it gives’ which ought to hopefully make it curtail its ambitions and exhibit accountable behaviour.
- Views expressed within the article are the writer’s personal and don’t essentially characterize the editorial stance of Kashmir Observer
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