by Auqib Javed
As the newest avalanche reveals, lengthy dry spells and better temperatures are making the Himalayan area of Kashmir much more disaster-prone
At round 1:30 PM on February 22, 2024, Showkat Ahmad Relatively, a ski information within the picturesque Gulmarg resort in Kashmir acquired a name from the native administration that an avalanche had hit the Khilanmarg space of Gulmarg often known as ‘Military Ridge’.
On snowmobiles, Relatively and his colleagues rushed to the spot. The avalanche had trapped a bunch of six Russian skiers together with their native information. All however one have been rescued safely, however one Russian skier perished.
The avalanche in Gulmarg struck in the course of the fourth version of the Khelo India Winter Video games, the place 800 participants have been taking part in a variety of occasions, together with snowboarding, alpine snowboarding and Nordic snowboarding. The authorities made a public assertion that the avalanche occurred removed from the realm the place the Winter Video games have been going down, and all different gamers have been secure.
A day earlier than, the Defence Geoinformation Research Establishment (DGRE) primarily based in Chandigarh, which operates below the Ministry of Defence, had issued an avalanche warning for a lot of hilly areas of Jammu & Kashmir, together with Gulmarg. A Gulmarg public official, talking on the situation of anonymity, instructed The Third Pole that the skiers had disregarded the warnings to go snowboarding in ‘backcountry’, removed from the ‘inexperienced zone’ cleared for the video games. One of many individuals investigating the incident has blamed the skiers for setting off the avalanche.
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A protracted dry spell
This yr there was restricted snowfall in early winter, a lot to the frustration of holidaymakers and tour operators. The Kashmir valley endured a chronic dry spell. It was solely on 28 January 2024 that Gulmarg was lastly blanketed by its first main snowfall, breaking a two-month dry spell. January 2024 was one of many driest and warmest Januarys recorded in the past 43 years, in response to the meteorological division.
Avalanches happen when a layer of snow collapses and slides downhill. Such occasions are extra seemingly during times of elevated temperatures, which hinder the buildup of snow.
Irfan Rashid, assistant professor on the Division of Geoinformatics, on the College of Kashmir, highlights the numerous “warmth within the system” because of the extended dry spell within the valley. He notes that temperatures have been above regular throughout these months and the amassed warmth was not in a position to dissipate.
“The late snowfall was watery (snow-water equal) and it started melting quickly,” he explains, including “When the water content material within the snow is excessive, it’ll resist settling down – thus growing the danger of avalanches.”
The local weather change connection
The Third Pole has beforehand reported that senior Indian scientists like M Rajeevan had linked the lengthy dry spell with local weather change and its influence on the western disturbances – which carry precipitation from the Mediterranean. Sonam Lotus, the India Meteorological Division (IMD) meteorologist, had mentioned that Kashmir had seen dry winters earlier than, however the temperatures have been far greater than earlier.
This altering sample has a big influence on Kashmir, Shakil Ahmad Romshoo, the Vice Chancellor of the Islamic University of Science and Technology in Kashmir, particularly for avalanches. Talking to The Third Pole, he defined that February and March have seen unusually heat temperatures within the area over the past decade.
Romshoo mentioned that in these months, when snowfall happens, the danger of avalanches will increase, explaining that the excessive temperatures result in “melting [which] reduces the friction and that’s the reason we see vital avalanches in [these] months. That is instantly associated to a rise in temperature which is the results of local weather change.”
In accordance with Ramshoo, snowfall in the course of the Chillai-Kalan (the identify given to Kashmir’s 40-day interval of intense chilly, the place temperatures drop as little as -10˚C) is essential to the area. The sub-zero temperatures scale back the chance of avalanches, however he stresses that there’s a want for a complete research to raised perceive the behaviour of avalanches within the valley.
Avalanches throughout Kashmir
The present avalanche comes simply weeks after a previous one in Gulmarg had led to the demise of two Polish skiers and resulted within the rescue of 21 others on February 1, 2024. One other avalanche had struck Sonamarg, one other fashionable vacationer vacation spot in Central Kashmir, two weeks in the past. Footage of the avalanche, which hit the neighborhood of a workshop for the Zojila tunnel building was captured on digicam. Moreover, on 20 February, one other minor avalanche occurred close to the Hung space of Sonamarg, obstructing the Sindh stream and resulting in the closure of the Sonamarg-Ladakh highway.
Avalanches usually are not new to Kashmir, which have traditionally resulted in vital casualties, notably amongst Indian and Pakistani navy personnel stationed in avalanche-prone areas alongside the borders.
In November 2019, four Indian army troopers and two porters have been killed after an avalanche struck the Siachen glacier within the Karakoram Vary.
In February 2010, 17 Indian troopers have been killed and dozens injured after a large avalanche ploughed into an Indian military coaching centre in Gulmarg.
The most recent local weather science means that such disasters are more likely to get a lot worse. The Himalayan Assessment report carried out by the Worldwide Centre of Built-in Mountain Improvement (ICIMOD) in 2019 had warned that local weather change was considerably affecting the cryosphere – or the areas of snow and ice – within the Himalayan area. Of explicit concern was its influence on the Indus basin, by which the Kashmir valley lies. The report famous that the Indus basin noticed essentially the most casualties from pure disasters between 1980-2015 within the Himalayan area.
(This text was initially revealed on The Third Pole and is republished below the Creative Commons BY NC ND licence.)
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